It is important for us, as citizens of the United States and our planet, to know of the growing hostilities which continue to build between China and the United States, and the likelihood of a “peer war” including both kinetic and cyber operations which could negatively impact all aspects of our lives. This conflict could potentially be catastrophically destructive to the lives of millions of people and our global economy. Depending on the news sources we read and the people to whom we are connected, in-person and digitally, our awareness of this potential conflict varies considerably. While I certainly won’t assert I can predict the future with complete accuracy, I am increasingly confident that economic, social, political and military dynamics in both the United States and in China suggest a future conflict is very likely in the next three to four years. (I’m writing this in August 2024.) Taiwan is the most likely focal point and catalyst for this conflict between our countries.
While United States military and security / intelligence forces have engaged in a variety of global, violent conflicts since 1945, as a nation the United States has not been in a full-fledged “peer war” since World War II, when we faced (and eventually triumphed over) both Nazi Germany and the Empire of Japan.
This June 2024 letter from the current US Secretary of the Air Force, Chief of Staff of the US Air Force, and Chief of US Space Operations to the new Superintendent at the U.S. Air Force Academy is a primary catalyst for recent changes to the training regimens and overall culture at USAFA. This document references the aforementioned expected “peer war” with China, and seeks to better prepare incoming Second Lieutenants in the US Air Force and US Space Force for immediate leadership and important roles in what will most likely be a highly dynamic, fluid, and unpredictable hostile conflict.
ChatGPT Summary:
The letter from high-ranking Air Force and Space Force officials to Lt. Gen. Bauernfeind outlines directives to reform the leadership development program at the U.S. Air Force Academy. The goal is to better prepare cadets for immediate leadership roles upon commissioning, with a focus on adapting to the challenges of modern warfare, including contested environments across multiple domains. The letter emphasizes the need to assess and possibly eliminate outdated traditions and ensure cadets are fully prepared to lead from Day One. Lt. Gen. Bauernfeind is instructed to report back within 30 days with plans and resource requirements.
“USAFA Letter to Gen Beaurnfeind (June 2024)” (CC BY 2.0) by Wesley Fryer
“USAFA Letter to Gen Beaurnfeind (June 2024)” (CC BY 2.0) by Wesley Fryer
Key quotations:
Shared experiences are a valuable part of all teams, but traditions and leadership styles that do not reflect the leadership skills we expect of our newly commissioned lieutenants are counterproductive.
and:
Your mission is to ensure that our USAFA graduates are as ready to lead as they possibly can be—on Day One. Our nation requires this, the threats we face demand it, and it is time to move USAFA forward.
This weekend when my wife and I attend the annual “Parents Weekend” events at the US Air Force Academy, as the parents of a current cadet, I look forward to the traditional opportunity for the current superintendent to address parents and answer questions. I suspect it will be an illuminating and instructive experience.
“Superintendent Brief: USAFA Parent’s Weekend 2023” (CC BY 2.0) by Wesley Fryer
Depending on the YouTube videos you have watched, liked, commented on, etc, you may or may not be aware there are plenty of “voices out there” predicting a sustained period of conflict in the United States surrounding our upcoming national elections as well as threats the United States faces internationally. It is both challenging and difficult to filter through this information and decide what to believe.
I do believe it is important to follow the guidelines of FEMA (the US Federal Emergency Management Agency) and be prepared in our homes for a variety of natural disasters and other disruptive societal events.
I started my “Communitarian Prepper” website and YouTube channel a few years ago as a result of my increased awareness of my need to be better prepared for possible disasters and emergencies.
It is impossible to predict the future with complete accuracy, but it would be naive to imagine natural as well as human-initiated disasters / emergencies in upcoming years are going to be free of conflict and challenge for us personally. It’s up to each of us to decide what we need to prepare for, and how we want to prepare. I like this slogan and feature it on my Communitarian Prepper website:
Prepare in peace, prevail in peril.
There are a lot of things I do not know, but this is one I’m sure of: The time you do NOT want to go to the store for needed emergency supplies is when our news and social media channels are filled with panicked headlines warning of an impending attack, disaster, or other emergency / crisis situation.
Different challenges face different generations of people, and I hope we will not experience and have to struggle through violent military conflict between the United States and China in our lifetimes. When current military leaders consider that conflict likely, however, it’s important to pay attention.
We should each prepare accordingly.
Source : Preparing for “Peer War” with China
